الفهرس 
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Abstract
Unlike civil engineering, which originated in ancient Egypt between 4000 and 2000 BC, project
management in the contemporary sense began in the 1950s. As a result, various managerial domains
continue to be in desperate need of scientific contributions in order to present relevant strategies that
might assist the project management team in dealing with the current issues that confront their efforts.
One of the most significant concerns is project uncertainty.
Project cost contingency reserve management is a key managerial topic that has seen numerous efforts
to address it gradually throughout project execution. Project cost contingency, like project estimates,
should be updated in the same way as project costs are updated within analytical procedures,
particularly earned value analysis. This study will use earned value analysis as a framework to manage
project contingency reserves progressively and simply.
So, similar to the concept used to monitor project performance within earned value, which considers
cost performance index (CPI) as a ratio between two costs (planned and actual) and schedule
performance index (SPI) as a ratio between two time-oriented values, this thesis will present a
proposal for a risk performance index in order to express the influence of project risk on project
performance and to better manage project risk. Such an index will be similar to the (CPI) and (SPI) in
that it will be a ratio of two hazards (pre-assessed during the project planning phase and real-time).
This thesis will discuss and study the project risk performance index as a ratio between pre-assessed
cost contingency and actual contingency, adopting scientific opinions that consider the cost
contingency reserve as a comprehensive expression of project overall risks that will be dealt with after
avoiding and mitigating others.
This opinion is expected to aid project managers in dynamically managing project risk, monitoring
contingency reserve status as a tangible term, and making the decision-making process concerning
earned value more expressive as it concludes a related project risk component.