الفهرس 
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTIONOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
Nile flow at High Aswan Dam using different scenarios of Global Circulation Model
(GCM). Statistical downscaling of 16 Global Climate Models with A2 emission scenario
were applied to simulate the future precipitation for (2011–2039), (2041–2070) and (2071–
2100) horizons representing near, intermediate and far future, respectively and were
compared with 1970–2000 CRU nominal period. The results of the best GCM were used
as inputs for hydrological modeling to predict the inflow. 33 scenarios have been
considered to assess the impacts of climate change on the Eastern Nile River. These
scenarios comprise baseline scenario, 13 development scenarios, 18 combined /
management scenarios (17 individual covering basin and 1 overall basin) during the current
century and 3 climate change scenarios near, intermediate and far future, respectively.
The results, indicated that, the average annual inflow at High Aswan Dam will be reduced
by 17.69% - 22.1% due to the development of Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile Basin. The
peak reduction is occurred in case of the constructing and operating 4 dams, scenario
BASW-MS3 (Gambella, Baro1, Baro 2 and Geba A). Whereas, the average annual inflow
at High Aswan Dam will be reduced by 10.5 % - 22.5% due to the development of Tekeze-
Setit-Atbara Basin. However, the average annual inflow at HAD declined by 19% - 21%
due to the development of the Blue Nile Basin. The peak reduction is occurred in case of
scenario BN-MS5 (GERD + Mandaya + Karadobi+ Beko Abo), while the average annual
inflow reduction for scenario BN-DS1 (GERD) is estimated to be 20%. The Main Nile
Basin developments scenario indicated that, the average annual inflow for developing
Kajbar Dam (MN-DS1) scenario at High Aswan Dam is over estimated, rises by 0.25%.
10 dams out of the 13 have a negative impact to the inflow at Aswan. The development
and management of 10 dams on the Eastern Nile would reduce average annual the inflow,
evaporation and energy production at Lake Nasser/ HAD by 18%, 4% and 4%,
respectively. However, climate change can force these Lake Nasser to be drier. The average
annual inflow reductions at High Aswan Dam due to climate change are estimated to be
24%, 35% and 36% for near future (2011-2040), intermediate future (2041-2070) and far future (2071 -2100), respectively. Theses reduction by virtue of reservoir water level
reduction of 8.37 m, 18.6 m and 19.07 m and turbine efficiency increment by 34.8%,
32.92% and 32.38% for the three projected periods, respectively. It is recommended to
develop the national climate resilience and adaptation strategy to face climate change
impacts on water resources, food security and energy generation.