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العنوان
نموذج احصائي مقترح للتنبؤ بالطلب علي صناعة الاسمنت في جمهورية مصر العربية /
المؤلف
ضيف الله، مصطفى شعبان طه.
هيئة الاعداد
باحث / مصطفي شعبان طه ضيف الله
مشرف / عصام فوزي عزيز
مشرف / أحمد كامل السيد أحمد
مشرف / عمادالدين إبراهيم علي
تاريخ النشر
2015.
عدد الصفحات
122 ص.
اللغة
العربية
الدرجة
ماجستير
التخصص
الإحصاء والاحتمالات
تاريخ الإجازة
1/1/2015
مكان الإجازة
جامعة عين شمس - كلية التجارة - الاحصاء والرياضة والتامين
الفهرس
يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام

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المستخلص

The problem:
The cement industry isa pillar of the national economy in Egypt, and one of the strategic industries that depend upon the State in the establishment of infrastructure of the national economy.
The cement industry is considered the most important industry among modern industries,where it plays a crucial role in the progress of the construction boom. So, the need for the cement industry increases with population density and the expansion of the movement anthem and construction .In addition to its use in cement industries as it facilitates the availability of foreign currencies by enhancing export.
Objective of the Research:
This research aims to determine the importantant factors that affect the demand for the cement as well as estimating the demand function during the given period.
The suggested recommendations are given at the end of the research. To increase production and the relative importance of each Variable، as well as the management of foreign exchange to face the needs of imports.
Importance of the research:
The importance of the study of this research is to help decision-makers in the field of cement industry through the development of the national plan for the cement industry، and for these industry policy-making، and available in light of the anticipated needs of resource planning what to achieve economic development goals in the light of the surrounding cement industry changes.
Research Plane and curriculum:
To achieve the Objectives of this research thestudy will be represented in five chapters as follows:
Chapter 1:
This chapter contains a summary of cement industry with the purpose of clarifying the problem، aims، importance and the research hypotheses. It also contains a summary of previous relevant studies.
Chapter 2:
The researcher presents cement industry in terms of origination,
development stages and types of the cement,in additional to production methods, Environmental effects of the cement industry and how to reduce pollution.
Chapter 3:
This chapter considers the steps to build the suggested statistical model.It also includes an estimate of the model parameters and determine the proposed statistical methods to estimate these parameters، as follows:
Ridge Regression
ARIMA
Chapter 4:
This chapter contains the application of the statistical methodology using the available data for estimation the demand of the cement industry. It considers the explanatory ability of the model as well as the forecasting power of the model together.
Chapter 5:
This chapter includes both the results obtained and our recommendations.