الفهرس 
Problem DefinitionOnly 14 pages are availabe for public view
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Abstract
The Nile Basin countries face many socioeconomic problems resulting from the population increase and climatic changes. These factors and many others have challenged the upper Nile Basin countries to start the implementation of water related projects that will affect the quantity and quality of Egypt’s water share in the Nile river flow. The study covered the area of Equatorial Lakes as well as the Blue Nile.
The objective of the study is, therefore, to quantify the impact of proposed water related development projects on Egypt’s water share in the Nile River flow at Aswan.
Accordingly, several water resources development scenarios in the upper Nile are addressed. The Nile – Decision Support Tool (Nile-DST), is used to study the impact of those scenarios on the inflow to Aswan High Dam (AHD).
EIGHT scenarios are addressed as follows: (1) Agriculture developments in the Equatorial Lakes Region (Low to High Demand is assumed); (2) Scenario number one with the operation of Jonglei Canal phase 1 (3.8 BCM); (3) Scenario Number one with operation of Jonglei Canal Phase 2 (7 BCM); (4) Increase of flow from equatorial lakes resulting from Climate Change; (5) development of four proposed hyDROPower stations on the Blue Nile; (6) Scenario 5 and integrated water resources development of Tana-Bels (2 BCM withdrawal from Lake Tana); (7) Scenario 6 and agriculture development in Ethiopia calculated at Border dam (3 BCM withdrawal); and (8) Scenario 7 and agriculture development in Ethiopia calculated at Border and Mendaia Dams (3, and 5 BCM withdrawal, respectively).
The water resources development at Lake Victoria has negative impacts that ranges from 11.6 to 16% from the withdrawal value at the exit of Lake Victoria, however, the impacts is positive at Aswan and ranges from 4.3% to 0.6% for different withdrawal scenarios from 1 to 20 BCM in case of the construction of Jonglei canal Phase 2. While the increase of the Outflow from Lake Victoria due to Climate changes has a positive impact at Aswan ranged from 0.17% to 5.17% according to the increase in the inflow that ranges from 1-20 BCM.
On the other hand the impact of the water resources development at Blue Nile has significant negative impacts on the Nile flow at AHD. The development of HyDROPower only without any agriculture expansion will result a decrease of the flow at AHD amounted 0.47 BCM, regardless the impacts of filling the four dams, which should be optimized to decrease the huge negative impacts of the water used for filling the reservoirs. Obviously, the impact of agriculture expansion for scenarios 6-8 have a significant and severe impacts ranges from 0.7% to 13.1% reduction of the Nile flow at Aswan according to the agriculture demand that ranges from 2 to 10 BCM .
That is to say for example the impacts of 10 BCM withdrawals resulting from agriculture or any consumptive development in the Equatorial lakes will result a 2.2% decrease of the Natural Nile River Flow at Aswan, while the same development projects at Ethiopian Plateau will result a significant 13.1% decrease of the Natural flow at Aswan (6 times of Equatorial Lakes).