الفهرس يوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
” ECONOMIC ALTERNATIVES TO FACE EGYPT
REQUIREMENTS OF WHEAT.”
(Summary and Recommendations)
This study aimed primarily to highlight the many alternatives that can be used to meet the current deficit in domestic production capacity of the wheat crop, and its inability to meet the basic consumption needs and requirements
According to the objective, the study have been out in five sections.
The first chapter deals with introduction to the study and review of Reference, to highlight the most important studies related to the subject of current study.
The second chapter deals with the local and global production of wheat.
In this regard, the research reached the following results:
1- lower Egypt contributes by about 49.5%. 52.4% respectively of the total aria and production of wheat on the national level.
2- Average annual Per capita from GDP of wheat was the highest during the period (2005-2007) in the aria of desert Governorates estimated at 166.9 Kilograms compared to about 107.6, 102 and 101.3 kilograms in path of Upper Egypt, lower and meddle Egypt respectively.
3- Asia took the lead in the production of wheat with an estimated average annual output of about 247944.1 thousand, equivalent to approximately 42.53% thousand of the average annual world production of wheat, compared to about 191,070.7 thousand tons, equivalent to approximately 32.78% to Europe, and about 108,005.3 thousand tons, equivalent to approximately 18.53% for America and about 18,366.4 thousand tons, equivalent to about 3.2% to Oceania and about 17,550.7 thousand tons, equivalent to about 3% to Africa.
4- The average per capita of wheat GDP reached, the highest level in Oceania, where the extent of about 574.8 kilograms, while estimated at about 263.7 kg in Europe 115.7 kilograms in America, 65.9 kilograms in Asia, and 22.6 kilograms of Africa. This average also reached at the global level, about 90.7 kg.
5- China is at the forefront of the world’s most producing Countries of wheat with an annual production estimated at 101,954 thousand tons, equivalent to approximately 17.5% of the average annual world production of wheat, followed by India and the United States and the Russian Federation, Canada, France, Germany, Pakistan, Australia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Argentina, Iran and Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, at rates ranging between 11.3 and 1.5%.
6- The average per capita of wheat GDP is the maximum in Australia, among the most producing countries of wheat where estimated at 935.1 kg, and the lowest in India, where no more than about 60 kg.
The third chapter deals with conception of wheat at the local and global levels, In this regard, the research reached the following results:
1 - Expenditure on cereals and bread, represents the main items of expenditure on food and drink, according to the pattern of consumption expenditure of Egypt, where this expenditure amounted in 2004/2005,to about 809.8 pounds and 184.2 pounds for the family and the individual respectively.
2- Expenditure on cereals and bread, has been affected by the characteristics of population and number of family members and the level of family and individual income.
3 - The increased importance of wheat consumption among , other cereals, with an estimated overall utilization in the world in 2007/2008, equivalent to 29% of the total use of cereals.
4 - focused food use of wheat in 31 countries consumption is about 83.8% of the total food consumption of wheat in the world, China and India together have about 35.4% of the world food consumption of wheat. Egypt lies in ninth place in the world where the average annual food consumption of wheat in the period at estimated at about 11079 tons, equivalent to approximately 2.6% of world food consumption of wheat.
5- average per capita of wheat consumption amounted to about 150 Kg in Egypt, 194 kg in Algeria, 182 kg in Morocco, and reached about 183 kg in Iran, 171 kilograms in Turkey, 149 kg in Syria, 146 in Uzbekistan, whereas the average is about 161 kg in Romania, 138 kg in each of the Russian Federation, Italy, 130 kilograms in Ukraine.
To ensure food security and to meet the food gap of wheat in Egypt, the study reached the following results at the fourth chapter:
1 - Period of adequate production for domestic consumption of wheat has been estimated at about 7 months a year during the period (1990-2006), and that of covering imports for domestic use by about 5.3 month. Self-sufficiency in wheat in the average of the period (1990-2006) accounted to about 56.7%
2 - The normal development of increasing the area of wheat under the conditions of about 46 thousand faddans per year, reflects the limited impact on the total output of wheat and its food gap, while it is expected for productivity to play a more important role in increasing wheat production, which could lead to an increase in the volume of output on the national level by about 9.4%.
3 - Rationalizing the consumption of wheat can be achieved through the review of support, introducing of wheat substitutions, limiting the lost in path of wheat and pared, modifying the current consumption pattern and reducing the average per capita consumption of wheat.
The fifth chapter deals with foreign trade and import alternatives in this regard the study researched the following results:
1 - Seized control of 20 countries on the export trade of wheat, with average annual exports of about 105.4 million tons, equivalent to approximately 93.7% of the average annual total world exports of wheat. Exports of the united States, Canada, France and Australia, accounted for about 66.3 % of the annual average of the total world exports of wheat.
2 - Among the 10 countries importing wheat in the world, Italy is at the forefront, where imports accounted for about 5.89% of total world imports of wheat, compared to about 5.66% for Brazil, 5.17% for Japan, 4.12% for Egypt, 4.04% for China, 3.93% for Algeria , 3.45% for Spain, 3.37% for Indonesia, 3.32% for Korea and 3% of Iran.
3 – its possible to minimize the cost of wheat imports up to 16.38% by using of many alternatives in stead of the current pattern of importing wheat.
In the light of the findings of the study recommends that taken in the development of policies for addressing the needs of Egypt’s wheat and raise the proportion of self-sufficiency from the following considerations:
1 - The rise in average per capita production of local wheat, should be to achieve a better degree of food security, as they may reflect otherwise conduct food requires a re-look at the rationalization of consumption goods, more than reflecting a deficit in capacity to meet consumer desires irrational.
2 - There are real possibilities of increasing wheat production in Egypt, may not depend primarily in the time being at least, increase the area of wheat crop at the expense of strong competitive , which achieve higher return to producers, but may rely more heavily on areas in the new land, and on productivity can be increased in various areas of production,
3 - The necessity to rationalize local consumption and to reduce the average per capita by almost global rates in consumption.