الفهرس 
الباب الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
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SUMMARY
Agricultural production in Egypt is faced by two important limiting
factors. The first is the limitation of irrigationwater whereas the second is
the limitation of cultivated area. Nile river is the main source of irrigation
water. The fixed share of Egypt from Nile water is about 55.5 billion m3 a
year. There is an expectation about decreasing water resource in future.
This means that water is not only the most important factor affecting
agricultural production, but also the main factor which must be taken in
consideration in Egypt’s agricultural planning and policy. It is clear that
irrigation water is the major factor affecting vertical as well as horizontal
expansion in Egypt. Facing this problem this Thesis is conducted to study
water requirements of main field crops in Egypt including crop rotation,
current crop structure, the changing of the crops area, and water
consumption of each crop during 1985- 1992 seasons. Results obtained in
this research may lead to define the current Egyptian crop structure. This
would help in determining some alternative crop structures and lays the
basis for an agricultural plan more suitable for our new conditions. The
main factor affecting planned crop structure in this research is the net
revenue per water unit (1000 m3), i.e., to know the crop structure which is
more economical efficient in using irrigation water. Also, this research
aimed to estimate the sensitivity of crop structure activities as well as water
consumption, production, and net gain of it. The research method used
depended on descriptive statistical analysis to study water requirements and
alternative crop structures as well as linear programmingto determine the
optimal crop structure. It is worthily to say that the objective function is to
maximize the net gain from using 1000m3 of irrigation water.
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Data were collected from irrigation and water resources issues of
Central Agent for National Population and Statistics. Agricultural Economic
Annuals, records of Agricultural Research Center, Agricultural Research
Institute, Water distribution Reset Center Ministry of Public Works and
Water Resources, Ministry of Planning, Sugar Crop Association, Cotton,
Fibers, and Oil Crops Association (Ministry of Agriculture).
This research consists of three main chapters beside the introduction
and summary. Chapter one included review of literature. Chapter two
involved studies concerning the current Egyptian crop structure through
three sections. The first section dealt with the crop structure during 1985-
1992 seasons. The results could be summarized as follows:
1- Area of winter, summer crops and fruit trees as a percentage of the total
cultivated area increased, while Nile crops area decreased.
2- Cereal crops (wheat, maize, and grain sorghum) increased from 4365
thousand feddans in 1985 season to 5469 thousand feddan in 1992
season. This increase amounted by 1104 thousand feddan.
3- Cotton area decreased from 1081 thousand feddan in 1985 to 480
thousand feddan only in 1992.
4- Berseem crop area as a forage crop decreased from 2841 to 2380
’thousand feddan for the respective, while vegetable crop area were
constant.
Section two studied water consumption and requirement of the stable
crop structure. In this respect there were three measures of water
requirement according to place: a) field, b) beginning of irrigation canal, c)
Aswan. Also, there were four categories of water requirements according to
their effect on crop: a) maximum, b) economical, c) over saturated and d)
actual requirements. Meanwhile, the water consumptive use was
calculated according to the models described by Blaney- Criddle,
Hergerbver and Christiansen. The results of this section could be
summarized as follows:
1- Water requirements per feddan varied depending on the crop, seeding
rate, region and the irrigation method.
2- Water requirements per feddan was higher in upper Egypt than in middle
Egypt and the last was more than in Delta region for the same crop.
This may be due to the variation in climatic conditions.
3- The result revealed that the water requirements for the stable crop
structure was 47.9) 50.6 and 55.4 million rn3 for the field, start at of
irrigation canal and Aswan, respectively.
Section three included studies on economic efficiency of crop
structure and methods of its determination, water technical efficiency, water
distribution efficiency, water use efficiency, and irrigation efficiency.
Also, this section included information about the net gain of area unit
for main field crops during 1990 to 1993 seasons. Farm prices were used in
this determination because of their importance in this respect.
The results of this section could be summarized as follows:
1- Crop pattern in Egypt was greatly affect by the change in agricultural
prices, i.e., when the total gain from any crop increased, the farmers
increased the area of such crop and vice versa.
2- Irrigation water was used to be a free resource in agricultural production.
This is not the right way to deal with this economic resource and it is
preferred to have price for water irrigation to have the best resource
allocation.
Chapter three dealt with the allocation of water in A.R.E. agriculture
and consists of two sections. The first one refers to linear programming
method and its theoretical form, The second section suggested an
alternative crop structure which lead to the optimal use of water. It included
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seven models of the linear programming. Each model represented one of the
alternative crop structure. The first model included 12 constrains of water.
Each one represented one month of the year. The second model included 12
constrains of water use beside 12 constrains of labor. Other models had
been modified to be more suitable for the Egyptian conditions or to avoid
deficiency in the previous models. The most important results of this are as
follows;
1· The alternative crop structure had exhibited an increase in the net gain of
unit area.
2· There is surplus in the amount of water used and this could be used in
land reclamation.
3· There was a shortage in phosphatic fertilizers production in A.R.E.
Such result is true in all models used in this study.
4- The result of first model suggests that we can cultivate three winter
crops and two summer crops. The winter crops are wheat, vegetable,
and onion with an area of 49128.7, 756711, 135110.4 feddan,
respectively. This model saves about 2780.99 million m3 of water.
Also, the net gain of unit area increased by L.E. 39.019 million than
the current crop structure. The objective function value is L.E. 1625.3
million.
5· from the second model, the optimal crop pattern included (berseem,
wheat and onion crops) in the winter season and (cotton, vegetables,
and sesame crops) in the summer season. The area of the winter crops
were 964990.6, 1955004.5, 1975217.9 feddan, respectively, The
summer crops areas were about 974990.6, 1989344.9, and 461778.5
feddan, respectively. This model saves around 2767.~ million m3 of
water. The increase in net gain is expected to be L.E. 726.077 million.
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6- According to the results of the third model, we have to cultivate 3 winter
crops, i.e., wheat, onion and berseem with 2312593, 1122724.3, and
1621887 feddan, respectively. The summer crops were cotton,
vegetables, sesame, and rice with 1621887,637180.1, 1798138, and
1000000 feddan, respectively. This model saves around 5548.03
million m3 than the current crop structure. The increase in net gain
would be L.E. 311.557 million.
7- The fourth model suggested that the optimal crop pattern of onion,
vegetables, berseem and wheat as winter crops by 761868.3, 238131.8,
1107280, 2320120 feddan, respectively as well as rice, cotton,
vegetables and sesame as summer crops by 1000000, 1107280,
2270120,50000 feddan, respectively.
8- Models numbers 5, 6, 7 showed that there were shortages in the
phosphatic fertilizer production based on shadow prices values.
Shadow price of phosphatic fertilizer equals to L.E. 8.8 which
represents its importance in developing agricultural sector.