الفهرس 
الباب الاوليوجد فقط 14 صفحة متاحة للعرض العام
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المستخلص
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The Conclusion
The Egyptian agriculturaJl Sector witnessed radical economic
transformations after the second half of the 1980s, embodied in.the
gorenement method of the economic reformation policy including freeing
this sector and the other economical ones and the direction to the market
machinaries to the extent that framers the freedom of making their
producting and marketing decisions according to the market machinary.
Since the farm decisions are the total of the effect of all economical
variables, it was important to include in the study on analysis to the
supply response functions of some agricultural crops that are the subject
of the study in Kalubia governorate as it is one of the most important
agricultural governorates in Egypt.
Summary
The study problem embodies in the distorted pnces which
happened before the period of the economical freeing of the agricultural
sector as aresuIt of the unbalanced governemental in. terventions in the
agricultural Croups marketing and price Policy. Also it embodies in the
shortage of informations about the effects of the changes that was done in
the agricultural sector after the freeing that gave the farmer the freedom
to take his producting and marketing decisions and decide the prices
according to his accounts on the production of some crops. Since Kalubia
governorate is one of the most: important agricultural govemorats in
. Egypt, it was very important to know the most important economical
varibles that affect the supply response of the farmers and to analyize the
expected results of the economical variables on this response also the
determining the most effective of these varibles on the farm decision and
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the response degree Whether on the short run or the long run as it is the
most important of this study in order to achieve avational agricultural
policy on the governorat level and so on the republic level.
The research was used in analysing, measuring and getting the
results, the published and unpublished statistic data of the agricultural
Ministry, inaddition to the, data that was published by the central
admini$trationfor statistic. The study includes three main chapters in
addition to the preface and a summary in both Arabic and English and a ,
list of reference in both Arabic and English.
~he first chapter handle. The study reviewed the previous studies,
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of acreage supply response with respect to the agricultural crops subject
to study that had been done in Egypt. It is found that, a weak response to
the absolute and relative price variables as a- result of the govenment
intervention in determination the acreage and prices. On the other hand,
the study revealed the theoretical and analytical farmework for supply
response studies. It is displayed the approaches of supply response and its i
tools. this chapter also includes areview of the most important !
distributed Lag models that were before Nerlov model for partial a
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djustmert, used in the study, with an explaintion of the model used in the
study. I
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T~e second chapter handle the factors affecting sypply response for
the crops under investigation have been identified. These factors were
classifie into two major categories. The firs category, uncluded variables
represen . g institutional and legal constraints. The second category
included economic factors-reflecting the effeot of technological changes,
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price variations, and costs and profitability variations on the out put of the
crops included in this study.
Planted area for all Fi1ld crops under investigation had increassed
during the (1979 - 1996) exspet (;otton crop it was decreased. The annual !
average i rates of growthe of plant ledarea were a bout 2,6% 3,42%, 12,3%
and 5,11%, for Wheat, summer Maize, summer Rice, and Cotton,
respecti vely.
Planted area for all vegetables crops under investigation had
decreased during the (1979 - 1996) expet summer Potatoes crop it was
increased, The annual average rates of growthe of planted area were a
bout 5,63%, 3,04%, 9,41% and 1,18%, for summer Tomatoes, summer
Eggplant, sammer Squash, and summer Potatoes, respectively.
In general, farm prices had increased during (1979 - 1995) period.
The annual average rates of growthe in prices were a bout 13,240/0,
9,42%, 12,46%, 14,32, 10,25%, 11,24%, 12,17% and 13,5%, for Wheat,
summe Maize, summer Rice, Cotton, summer, Tomatoes, summer
Eggpplant, summer Squash, and summer Potatoes, respectively.
Also, costs per - feddan for all crops under investigation had
increased i during the (1979 - 1995) period. The annual average rates of
growthe of costs per - feddan were estimated around 12,7% forwheat,
12,6% for Maize, 11,85% for Rice, 16,31 for Cotton, 13,5 for summer
tomatoes i 10,59% for summer Eggplant, 12,812% for summer squash,
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and about i13,ll % for summer Potatoes during the same period.
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THe annual average rates of growth for profitability per - feddan
were a bout 32,19%, 7,85%, 14, 79%, 16,31%, 13,5%, 12,18%, 12,52%
and 15,35% for Wheat, summer Mazie, summer Rice, Cotton, summer
Tomatoes, summer Eggplant, summer Squash, and summer Potatoes
respectively.
The third chapter handle the estimation of the supply response
functions based on the Nerlovian approach for partial adjuatment model,
for Wheat summer Maize summer Rice, Cotton, summer Tomatoes,
summer Eggplant, summer Squash, and summer Potatoes, in Kalubia
Governorate by using time series data during the period (1979 - 1996).
The step wise method was used and atrial of studying a different
collection of the independant factor that was described before, according
to the correlationmatrie, Since this method gurantees the entence of the
explaining variables that was described before according to their
importance and getting the best variables from the statistic essence with
getting the proplems of multicollinearity a way between each independant i
variable and the other in the pattern, the application of this method results
in the following :
(1) It Was shown that the response of the planted area of Wheat in this
year ~o each of the planted area of wheat in the last year, the relative
profitability per-feddan of Wheat to Long berseem in the last year,
and ~e relative price of Wheat to Long berseen in the last year in the
double log Function - while ill the linear Function it was shown that
the planted area of Wheat in this year responses to the current farm
prices of Wheat in the last year.
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(2) About summer Maize, it was shown that the planted area of the
summer Maize crop response in this year to each the planted area of
the crop last year, and relatives total cost per-feddan of summer
Maize to summer Rice in that last year whether in the double log and
the linear Functions.
(3) About summer rice, it was shown that the planted area of the summer
Rice crop in this year response to each that planted area of summer
rice crop in the last year, and average of fidden prodution in the last
year and relativs total cost per-feddon of summer Rice to summer
Maize in the last year whether the double log and the linear
Functions.
(4) About Cotton, it was shown that the planted area of the Cotton crop in
this year response to the planted area of Cotton crop in the last year,
and the relative price of Cotton to Wheat in the last year in the double
log Function. while in the linear Function it was shown that the
planted area of cotton in this year responses to each the total costs
per-feddan in the last year, relative profitability per-fidden of Cotton
to Rice in the last year and the relative price of Cotton to the Wheat in
the last year.
(5) About summer Tamatoes, it was shown that the planted-area of the
summer Tomotoes crop in this year response to each the planted area
of summer Tomatoes in the last year and reative profitability per
fidden of summer Tomatoes to summer Squash in the last year in the
double log Function. While in the linear Function it was shown that
the planted area of summer tomatoes in this year response to the
planted area of summer Tomatoes in the last year.
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(6) About the summer Egg plant crop it was shown that the response of
the planted area of the Egg plant crop in this year, to each the total
cost per-feddan in the last year and the rerative price of summer
Eggptant to summer Potatoes in the last year, in the Double log
Functions. while about the linar picture it was shown that there is a
response of the planted area of Eggplant in this year to each the
fidden total cost and the planted area of Eggplant crop in the last year.
(7) About summer Squash, it was shown that the planted area of the
summer Squash crop in this year response to each the planted area of
summer Squash in the last year and current farm price in the last year
in the double log Function. While in the linear Function it was shown
that the planted area of summer Squash in this year response to each
the planted area of summer Squash and profitability per feddan in last
year.
(8) About summer Potatoes, it was shown in that the planted area of the
summer Potatoes in this year response to each the planted area of the
summer Potatoes in the last year and relative profitability per-feddan
of summer Potatoes to summer Squash in the last year, and relativ
total costs per feddan of summer Potatoes to summer Eggplant in the
last year in linear Function. While in the double log Function it was
shown that the planted area of summer Potatoes in this year response
to the real farm price in the last year, and the planted area of the
summer Potatoes in thelast year.
Recommendatiolls
The study found that according to estimate supply respons
functions of the crops _ibat are the subject of the study in Kalubia
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governorate, that fixing and excution of any price policy of agricultural
crops has to be in the light ofthe exchanging and competting relations
between the different crops of the agricultural turn. Also it has to be fixed
away from the study of the changes effect in the relative production cost
fram among the crops, in addition to the effects that results from the
changes in the relative profitabilaty of different crops whose effect is
reflected in the possiblity of changing the actual planted area from the
ones that the required crop aimed at.
Not only this but also we can get some recommendations out of
this study whichwill helpus in making adecision which are :
1~ The necessity of the governement performance of an effective vole in
the local market to provide the sufficent protection to the farmer as to
interfere in the market to buy a crop at the minimum level of guran
tee prices to achiere a prices stability.
2- Developing the agricultural guidanee and the national tirade to enhance
the agricultural crops through encouragin the fanners to adapt a high
production kinds that need a little water and to adapt the scientific
recommendations concerning their production and marketing.
3- Supporting adata base that provides that marketing information on the
governorate level. On the national level and on the international level
to achieve prices which are determined in the light of the expected
changes in the international prices.
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