الفهرس 
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Abstract
ABSTRACT
Water projects in Egypt represent an attractive investment opportunity for construction companies as well as a long term concession to build water infrastructure where the need for such service is in high demand. These projects in Egypt involve various risk factors which have various impacts on both cost and time objectives that may lead to project cost overrun and time delay. The successful implementation of such projects depends on identification, assessment and quantification of the effect of risk factors on the project objectives.
Based on the results of the literature review, seventy-two risk factors were identified and grouped into fourteen groups. A questionnaire was designed and used with professionals in the field of water projects in Egypt to assess the probability of occurrence and the impacts on both project cost and time. Statistical analysis has been conducted using (SPSS program) to introduce an assessment for the probability of occurrence and impacts of the risk factors and the risk groups.
A proposed model was developed to assess the effect of risk factors on the cost overrun and time delay. The proposed model consists of two main modules which were developed using fuzzy logic in order to overcome the shortcoming of the limitation and uncertainty of the available data. The model was verified using a real data for two water projects executed in Egypt during the period from (2004 to 2006).
The results of the study showed that the most critical risk factor expected to cause the cost overrun of the water projects in Egypt is the (changes in the materials prices), while the (fluctuation default of Subcontractor) risk factor is considered the most critical one to cause the time delay. The results also showed that the proposed model can be used in calculating the expected cost overrun and time delay associated to the water projects as a percent of original cost and time of the project respectively by using simple terminologies such as logical rules and linguistic variables. A proper understanding of the risk analysis profile can be introduced for the Egyptian water projects professionals to take proper risk management strategies.